Trading the Stockmarket

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Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by User Banned » Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:02 am

How about trading for a living?

Is anyone here doing that?

What do you trade? US and/or Japan etc?

Do you go through a prop firm or a retail broker?

DO you still have to teach Ingrish on the side to make ends meet?

I hear forex is very popular. I have experience trading US stocks as a scalper
Saru mo ki kara ochiru

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eb0li
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Re: Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by eb0li » Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:20 am

I'm doing practice trades now to be able to trade successfully in the future, but I haven't made any real trades yet. I'm getting better and I was wondering some of the same things. Should I stick to US stocks which I feel like I kind of know, or should I try to learn about the Japanese stock market? Does anybody here have experience with different trading platforms?

Fenrig
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Re: Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by Fenrig » Tue Sep 29, 2009 3:20 pm

I count on my passive income to cover my entertainment bill. Does that count?

I go through an expensive broker in Canada because I've not yet found a better (read: cheaper) alternative. This sucks.

I buy individual stocks which I keep for a long time. My calls are not always good (just ask Mogura about that!) and so I'm currently developping an effective excel spreadsheet to help me cut my losses and ride out my winners... I'll post it after I've debugged the darn thing. I'm a total newbie at VBA code. Regarding that: What's the upload limit for attachments on the board?

The stocks I buy follow two patterns:

1. High and sustainable dividend for continous cashflow. (ex: TNH)
2. Speculative buys of up-and-coming companies based on their past performance.* (ex: SPIR)

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns! IOW: completely speculative.

You can see my full list on Motley Fool's CAPS pages. I'm fenrig there too. I got hit pretty bad last year but have recovered a lot of my losses... still underwater though. 8( (Hence the new spreadsheet to improve my sell-side decisions!)

Forex: I buy some US dollars with Japanese yen on big swings. I just bought in at 90yen. We'll see how that goes. I plan on holding on for about 6 months but we'll see what reality has in store. In my dreams, I see myself selling this at 100. So far, I've been lucky with Forex.

Mutual Funds: This is where I plunk down the largest portion of my savings because I can do it in a Japanese bank and it hurts less than seeing my funds go up at 0.005% interest. I currently hold something called Happy Clover (international 5yr duration bond fund) and a value dividend fund... don't remember the name off hand but both of these distribute cash monthly. I take my returns in cash, not in shares because I like to choose when and what I buy. I'm winning on these investments.

JGB: I buy in when they're near 1.5% for 5 years. Can't really lose with these.

Fixed investments: I buy stuff that gives me a direct return or a serious discount over whatever I currently use. BUT everything I buy is stripped down to the wire. My car has nothing but the engine and the frame. I declined the widget that gives you a detailed readout of power-use with the solar panels to save 100,000yen. So far so good on this end!

When I reach 10,000,000yen of annual income, I'll cut one day of work... and again the next time I reach that amount and so forth until I retire. Soon.....

I sometimes get calls from shady people from Tokyo and Korea for investments into Land Banking in Thailand (offered just a couple of months before the most recent coup :clap: ) or stocks like RQI.F, the latter based on insider, non-public information which makes it a guaranteed winner. :poo: I've yet to find someone who can offer me good (and LEGAL!) personalized investment advice.

Fenrig
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Re: Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by Fenrig » Fri Oct 02, 2009 10:25 am

OK, I got my database working properly!

To use it, you'll need Excel 2007 and you'll also need to download this add-in:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/s ... n%20Files/

Put those files into your "C:\CSMF Add-in" directory.

Then get my attached file and it should work.

Basically, this spreadsheet should limit your losses on bad decisions and maximise your gains on good decisions. It should also let you play the swings on moderately volatile issues because it gives both SELL and BUY advice.

It lists the last price in column B, the Highest price since you've been holding in column C and the recommended sell price in column D. Prices are updated automatically but you need to run a macro to get the BUY/SELL ratings. Just hit CTRL-R while you are on the Current Holds sheet to recalculate.

Essentially, I think you should put the stocks you'd like to buy in the future on the "Current SOLDS" sheet and the stocks you are now holding in the "Current holds" sheet. When you buy one of the "Current SOLDS" stocks, you switch it to the other sheet and vice-versa when you sell.

I currently set my sell/buy points at 20% from the top/bottom. You can narrow it down. I think 15% should work at least as well. I put 20% because my broker is expensive and I don't want to generate signals except for the big moves in either directions. The narrower the range you set, the more false signals you'll generate whereas the wider the range, the bigger losses you'll take and the more you'll miss out on the run-up.

If you look closely, you'll notice that I have a general sell-signal when the market as a whole is down, even if your individual stocks are not. This is an effort to minimize systemic risk. We'll see how it goes in real life.

Tell me how it works for you and feel free to try it out on the virtual game I started on:
http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Homepage.aspx
It's called LJ Stockpickers
Password: fenrig

PS: Please don't remove the S&P ticker from the list as I use it for the SELL calculations. You can list up to 200 stocks with the current settings. If you need more, you'll have to edit the macro. Good luck.
Attachments
STOCK ADVISORV2.xlsm
Excel stock buy/sell decision-maker
(24.95 KiB) Downloaded 193 times

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Privileged
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Re: Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by Privileged » Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:00 pm

I have been managing to post small but consistent gains to my forex account, pretty much according to plan. The money is not much to speak of yet, but I am trying to stay focused on the long term, get the account up to size, and with that experience and confidence behind me start taking larger positions and begin supplementing my teaching wage with some of the profit.

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Tall Tall Tree
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Re: Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by Tall Tall Tree » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:47 pm

Cool, Privileged. Could you tell us which currencies you're trading - any in particular, or just whatever you can come across? And how are you deciding when to buy and sell?

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Re: Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by Privileged » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:24 pm

My favorite is eur/chf. The Swiss National Bank declared 1.5 a "line in the sand" and said they would intervene before that level. When it gets close, I put an order in and wait. As obvious as that is, it has yielded consistent results. I have also been trading AUD/USD and USD/CAD, basically hopping on the weak US dollar. As for when, I probably overanalyze at this point, I try to take into account everything, chart patterns, round numbers, fibonacci levels, economic news releases, time of day in different trading centers, as well as "market sentiment" (factoring in risk appetite or sitting out if smart people are predicting a short term dollar rally).

I have found what a lot of people say to be true, patience and self-discipline are the hardest parts. Doing nothing should be easy, but it's really hard to keep up with all this stuff and be all wound up about it only to realize the best thing you could do for the day is not place any trades at all.

Fenrig
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Re: Trading the Stockmarket

Unread post by Fenrig » Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:09 pm

Last year, I started a new blog called The BeerVestor in which I talk about various investment-related themes (and beer!).

The main focus here is to help me crystalize the financial advice I want to give my sons when they get to their University years. The beer is to add levity to an otherwise dry subject.

I'm quite happy with my latest post on the subject of traders being over-confident. Found here: http://beervestor.wordpress.com/

Also, as a follow-up on the two companies I mentioned earlier (TNH and SPIR)

TNH was at 109$/share then and is now at 162$/share with a dividend of 7% to boot. So that's a 50% percent appreciation plus 7% on the dividend over 5 years. Awesome.

SPIR was not so good. Actually, SPIR was a total stinker. Sorry. It went from 4.79$/share to 0.74/share today. Not even a dividend to comfort myself with. Good thing I labelled it speculative! Huh... who'd have thunk that with an admin. that likes green energy, and world-class tech, this could happen?

Confidence issues, perhaps?

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