The end of Trump thread

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How long will President Donald Trump last?

He'll be gone next month.
0
No votes
Six months
1
13%
A year
3
38%
Two years
2
25%
Three years
0
No votes
Four years
2
25%
Longer?
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 8

allblacks

The end of Trump thread

Unread post by allblacks » Thu Feb 02, 2017 1:30 pm

We need this thread for the news clippings and other stuff. The other thread for more serious discussion.

My personal prediction is 6 months and he's done.

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Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by Shawn » Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:23 pm

This needs to be poll!
6 months
1 year
2 years
4 years
8 years

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senseiman
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Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by senseiman » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:03 pm

To really get a good idea, you have to hypothesize about the events that would result in him leaving early.

1) Heatlh. He is getting old and entering a stressful job that he is clearly unprepared for, so a heart attack or something like that is a possible scenario. More interesting would be if his mental health deteriorates. Its hard to tell but he seems to already be showing signs of senility which could progress in the coming years. How anyone would define the line over which that precludes him from performing his duties is a tough question though, in part because even now he seems to be mentally unfit for them and also because Reagan set the bar pretty low....

2) The Republican establishment turning on him for real. One hypothesis is that once the Republicans have secured what they want from him - Supreme Court nomination, repeal of Obamacare and a few other things - he will become more of a liability than an asset to them and they will find some way of ousting him. This could play out in two ways. In scenario 1 he gets embroiled in a big scandal (like if the Golden shower video turns out to be real and shows something really gross like him jerking off while wearing nothing but a ridiculously long tie, or perhaps more realistically something involving his business empire and a serious conflict of interest) and they decide to impeach him and go with Mike Pence as president. Scenario 2 is that he avoids major scandals in his first term but is so unpopular that he loses the nomination in the 2020 Republican primaries). I would say either of these is a possibility at least. Right now the base is behind Trump, so they definitely won't try anything early, but if he gets into a scandal that disillusions the base (or he just performs badly) the second they smell blood in the water the congressional Republicans will likely pounce.

3) The Democrats win a landslide in the midterms and they go after him. Impeachment for the same stuff the Republicans might go after him for in the above point would play out here. A Democratic landslide would up the chances of this significantly, not just because you would have the opposition holding congress but because such an election outcome would be a sign of Trump's deep unpopularity to fellow Republicans and would give them the political cover (and incentive) to lend some support to it (kind of like how Congressional Republicans turned on Nixon).

4) Assassination/coup. These are highly unlikely and kind of la-la land scenarios, but with Trump you can't really exclude the bizarre. If he really is as unstable as he seems and is about to take the country into some horrible abyss in an international crisis, who knows. Its possible that some random weirdo private citizen might try to do it, but he is probably pretty safe from that since all the people who are both A) insane enough to do it and B) have the skills necessary to do it in the face of tight security are all fervent Trump supporters.

My guess is that he is probably safe until at least the midterms, but after that all bets are off.
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allblacks

Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by allblacks » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:53 pm

Shawn wrote:This needs to be poll!
6 months
1 year
2 years
4 years
8 years
You got it.

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Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by Shawn » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:34 pm

Senseiman adds some interesting things to think about. I voted for 2 years, just because the GOP will try and cover for Trump but won't be able to keep up the effort for more than a year. Trump's conflicts of interest and big mouth will catch up to him and everyone will finally see that he just has to go.

allblacks

Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by allblacks » Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:17 pm

Just in case you want to amend your vote I made that possible. I think it will be 1 year for him. Too much bullshit coming out of his mouth.

I'll make a bold prediction... One of his advisors or someone close to him will be a large part of the reason he is outed.

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Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by In The Know » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:18 am

This thread and the poll that goes with it are timely. I give Trump six months. Every day-- I mean EVERY day-- Trump says something stupid, shocking, offensive, ignorant, or contrary to the U.S. Constitution. Yesterday he apparently hung up on P.M. Turnbull from Australia after things got heated during a phone call they had. This is what you get when you choose a President who has never worked for nor answered to anyone above him in his life. He's a know-it-all dictator and if you disagree with him, 'Fuck you!'

Here's the write-up about the Trump-Turnbull tiff:

http://www.salon.com/2017/02/02/a-disas ... e-program/

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Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by sirwanksalot » Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:34 pm

The sooner the better. He is an embarrassment to my country and a danger to the environment and world peace. I reckon the thin skinned fat fuck will get angry and keel over from a heart attack or a stroke before he is impeached. After that we are going to have to deal with the horrible cabinet he has assembled for four more years.

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Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by Junken Master » Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:38 pm

I've significantly changed my tune on Trump now. A large part of his campaign was based on mending ties with Russia and he's now probably gone and pissed them off even more than Hillary would have done.

For someone to have such a massive policy change like that based on looking at a few photo's is crazy.

(Disclaimer: I know that they were terrible photos.... but the shocking speed in which he's made such a U-turn on foreign policy is deeply worrying).

I thought that he was Assad's mate until recently and the big focus was on Islamic state???

Get this mother fucker out. Yesterday.

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Re: The end of Trump thread

Unread post by Junken Master » Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:52 pm


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