The North Korea Question

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The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:58 pm

OK so North Korea have tested yet another ballistic missile, in addition to continuing with their nuclear weapons program unabated.

The situation isn't good. North Korea doesn't look like imploding into itself anytime soon. China are always going to want North Korea as a buffer to perceived western encroachment. Sanctions are not really having an effect.

My question is: What is the tipping point going to be before something is done about North Korea, rather than just condemning them all the time?

Are we going to wait until they have enough nukes to be able to pretty much glass Japan and South Korea, then just have the whole region sitting on tenterhooks?

Are we going to wait until North Korea develop an efficient and tested missile capable of carrying a nuke to hit the US West Coast?

Then if we go in, surely it has to be via conventional means, because if Nukes are used, then it's probably World War III with China anyway, and South Korea will just get irradiated.

But if we do go in by conventional means then that's still going to be the largest military confrontation since WW2. And North Korea can still pretty much launch anything they have an the South anyway.

But again, what is going to be the cut off point? When the North has 10 nukes? 20 nukes?

Would Japan go Nuclear if North Korea really did start to build up a significant arsenal?

Is there any possible way for the world to come together politically and talk China into doing something about it? I think this is highly unlikely.

One thing that is certain though - it's pretty much a shit sandwich whichever way you look at it.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:31 am

I don't know if there is a tipping point with a country like NK. Do you go to war over a missile program? Who goes to war? I'm not sure South Korea is all that interested right now. Moreover, for all it's saber rattling, is NK dumb enough to attack the US or Japan?

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by In The Know » Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:42 pm

Shawn wrote:Iis NK dumb enough to attack the US or Japan?
No. If they did the U.S. would carpet bomb every known military installation and all of Kim's personal residences. I doubt there would be a physical troop invasion across the border. That would be an ugly war, albeit a short one.

China needs to get with the program and shut Kim down. They have the means. China is still acting like a third world country in this.

Another :hohum: clickbait story here about "upping sanctions" or "getting NK to the negotiating table." :roll: The same tripe gets said after every bomb blast or missile launch. After 30 years the U.S. hasn't learned anything. Japan, South Korea, and the USA give in, NK gets something they want, then they go back to testing bombs and advancing their missiles. "Rinse, lather, repeat."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/un-security ... sile-test/
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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by senseiman » Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:02 pm

Junken Master wrote:
My question is: What is the tipping point going to be before something is done about North Korea, rather than just condemning them all the time?
North Korea has always been an issue, I'm not sure how this latest missile test changes anything?

In answer to your question though, as someone who currently resides in a possible target for a retaliatory nuclear strike by North Korea in the event of a war, I can say that I am 100% comfortable with continuing to condemn them all the time if the only other option is a war in which me and my family could be vaporized. Thank you for asking.
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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:46 pm

Appreciate the comments above.

Senseiman, believe me I wouldn't want anything happening to my wife's family out there either. It's just that now they only have a couple of crude weapons they can use and so are still a relatively limited threat (Nuclear wise).

This missile test in itself does not add to that threat at this precise moment but there is a big difference between having a couple of crude weapons with no ability to deliver them to suddenly having half a dozen decent ICBM's that can actually do some real damage, which this latest missile test is contributing towards.

I think something needs to be done (hopefully something which does not amount to a military confrontation) to rain them in so that they don't reach this stage, whether they are sabre rattling or not. It needs to be a little more than what the western powers are doing currently.

One would hope China would get involved before this happens as In The Know states, but my concern is that they'll just want to leave North Korea as a buffer state, no mater how big an arsenal the North develops.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:23 am

Just as this thread appears, Kim Jong-nam is assassinated in Malaysia.
China is certainly a key player in getting something done about NK, but I think NK is an important poker chip for them. As long as NK doesn't get too carried away, they are a useful tool in causing the West to freak out.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by senseiman » Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:26 pm

Junken Master wrote:Appreciate the comments above.

Senseiman, believe me I wouldn't want anything happening to my wife's family out there either. It's just that now they only have a couple of crude weapons they can use and so are still a relatively limited threat (Nuclear wise).
But you are talking like someone speaking from the comfort of safety. North Korea already has missiles capable of reaching Japan, and IIRC it is estimated to have 6 nuclear weapons.

But even in Japan we are relatively safe. Seoul on the other hand is extremely close to the border and in any war the North has enough heavy artillery pointed right at it to reduce the city to a pile of rubble in about an hour.

My point is that North Korea already has the ability to kill millions, so I don't see anything radically different coming down the pipeline that will make them fundamentally more dangerous than they already are.

Of course I am in total agreement that I would like something to be done to halt their weapons programs and eliminate their existing ones, but I don't see any realistic options open. Military confrontation should be ruled out (of course if the North invades the South or something that is a different story), economic sanctions are already in place and there aren't many other levers to pull. I am not so sure how much influence China actually has, they aren't as close as they used to be and there is actually very little economic or military cooperation between the two. Even if China was fully onboard with the US, I'm not sure they would make a difference, the regime runs by its own weird logic that seems impervious to outside influence.
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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by In The Know » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:05 am

Shawn wrote:Just as this thread appears, Kim Jong-nam is assassinated in Malaysia.
China is certainly a key player in getting something done about NK, but I think NK is an important poker chip for them. As long as NK doesn't get too carried away, they are a useful tool in causing the West to freak out.
China doesn't want NK falling and then unifying with South Korea, a U.S. ally. A unified Korea siding with America alarms China. But China has to be able to keep a lid on tyrant-psycho Kim. It will never happen, but it wouldn't be the worst thing for China to go in, get rid of Kim, and then annex NK! Let's face it, even under the Chinese their lives would improve immeasurably. What's South Korea going to do, go to war against China? :(
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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:23 am

Shawn wrote:Just as this thread appears, Kim Jong-nam is assassinated in Malaysia.
Nothing to do with me, honest.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by T.D. » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:33 am

I was going to start a thread on his brothers assassination. Apparently after the incident when he tried using fake passports to get to Tokyo Disney was the last straw for his family and he had no shot at the throne. His father was also weary of him due to his progressive Western ideology, belief in free-markets, etc. I guess they caught one of the assassins today too. Be interesting how this unfolds. It's like some shit out of a movie.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:50 pm

It's interesting that Malaysia are thinking about giving back the body.

I mean the North are only going to make an example out of him. Will they hang what's left of his body up somewhere in the streets? Or let the dogs finish him off?

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:40 pm

Four more missiles fired the other day. Apparently practice for taking out military bases in Japan!!

Phonecall between US and Japan stating that this is now a new level of threat.

Move now to install a high tech anti-missile system in the South. And that's pissing of China.

And I saw that the North has about 1000 convention missiles anyway.

Calm down everybody!

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by senseiman » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:36 am

Yeah, thank god there is a President who handles North Korean crises over dinner in public at his Florida resort with random people taking pictures and putting them on Facebook. We are in safe hands.
祇園精舎の鐘の聲、諸行無常の響あり。娑羅雙樹の花の色、盛者必衰のことわりをあらはす。おごれる人も久しからず、唯春の夜の夢のごとし。たけき者も遂にほろびぬ、偏に風の前の塵に同じ。

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by sirwanksalot » Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:44 am

senseiman wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:36 am
We are in safe hands.
Yes! The space between his even outstretched fingers is very small. We will have no chance of slipping through at all.
Check out the color difference and the contrast in the aging process. A life of avoiding manual labor in those hands. My hands look twice as old and I'm 30 years his junior.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:09 am

So, Tillerson is in South Korea. Apparently a pre-emptive strike is on the table. Wonderful.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:36 am

More "tough talk."
Pressure China to get involved and be a part of a solution? OK. Say the US will act unilaterally? Recipe for disaster. The reporter says that Trump is a "tough talker," but the supposedly great dealmaker gave up on his health care bill after about 2 weeks of.....doing things. Trump is not a tough talker. He's full of crap and has no idea what he is doing. War in North Korea would be just as catastrophic as the destruction of Iraq. Except this time, we know that North Korea has at least a couple of nukes and we can't be sure that they wouldn't use them.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:29 am

It looks like North Korea launched another missile this morning. The US sure sounds like it is determined to go to war.
A senior White House official issued a dire warning to reporters Tuesday on the state of North Korea's nuclear program, declaring "the clock has now run out and all options are on the table."

"The clock has now run out, and all options are on the table," the official said, pointing to the failure of successive administration's efforts to negotiate an end to North Korea's nuclear program.
So...Jared Kushner to the rescue? I have a bad feeling about this....
:bye:

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:05 pm

http://www.globalfirepower.com/country- ... orth-korea

Check out this link. They can't just stroll in like Iraq.

Even if they take out the missile sites and airfields quickly, what about the 70 submarines? And everything else?

Presumably the submarines can all fire missiles and would target South Korea and Japan?

Lunacy.

Even if China don't have that much influence at least they must try to do something. Anything is better than nothing.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:04 am

I seem to recall that North Korea was testing submarine-launched missiles and that they don't really have this capability yet. That aside, look at the thousands of pieces of artillery! I think this is the greatest worry in any attack on North Korea-- that the North Koreans would fire off an artillery salvo that would wipe Seoul off the map.

It's also important to remember that the US didn't just stroll into Iraq. The prelude to both Gulf Wars were massive air attacks to take out command and control infrastructure. I also remember how tough it was for the US to counter the threat of Scud missiles. Their mobility made them tough to find. North Korea could presumably use similar harassing tactics.

The size of North Korea's military aside, the numbers on how much oil it has are striking. North Korea has none. You can't do much with an army if you can't move it.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:48 am

I enjoy reading Tyler Rogoway's military columns at The Drive. Here's his latest on the US moving an aircraft carrier toward Korea.

In a nutshell, nobody can really say what it means? An attack? An attempt to push China to do something? Scare North Korea? Just a coincidence? He is of the opinion that an attack would be reckless.
But above all else, Thursday's token attack on Syria's Shayrat Air Base has led many to think that the President may be more open to grabbing for the military option in the near term than as a last resort when it comes to North Korea. The reality is that the missile attack did no real damage to Assad's war fighting machine—in fact it strengthened it drastically—nor did it threaten Assad himself in any way. And no, the attack was not a credible warning to North Korea, it was an omission that Trump's White House may not only react nearsightedly in a military manner to changing events, but also that they are only willing to do it in a highly limited and symbolic way. And North Korea is no Syria.

At Kim's fingertips, in addition to nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, is a massive, blunt and deadly military force, much of which has been contoured to cause as much immediate pain and suffering to South Korea, the US and its regional allies following an attack than anything else. As such, there is no real limited "military option" when it comes to North Korea. Anything "kinetic" in nature is a crap shoot that could result in the immediate release of tens of thousands of artillery guns and rockets emplacements, most of which are buried in highly fortified revetments along the DMZ. These weapons, which can contain gas, will rain down on South Korea, including large parts of Seoul. The destruction and loss of life would be on a scale we have not seen since WWII, and no, there is no super weapon that can intercept this barrage.

...

Above all else, the idea that some grand "military option" exists today in dealing with the ongoing North Korean crisis—one that won't feature a high probability of leaving scores of South Koreans dead and a region totally destabilized—is at best an absurdly high stakes game of chance, and at worst a nearsighted invitation to the worst war the world has seen in 70 years.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:47 pm

Was something in the papers yesterday about 150,000 Chinese soldiers being in station near the border.

And the north did attack first back in 1950 without much warning.

If you were teaching in South Korea (especially Seoul) would you be getting the fuck out of dodge or try and hang in there for a bit? You wouldn't have much of a chance to get out when it suddenly all goes off.

The allies fucked up anyway in the original war. They pushed up too close to the Chinese border - they wanted it all. They could have drawn a line somewhere between the 38th Parallel and the North Korea / China border so that the North was sufficiently weakened but not enough to push China into drawing out half a million Chinese troops.

So we are left with what we have today.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by sirwanksalot » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:25 am

Pyongyang orders 600,000 out of the city.

Japan sends warships to accompany the US aircraft carrier.

China's president meets with Trump last week and abandons NK coal for US coal.

Very intridasting. Seems like there is a coordinated plan in the happening right now.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by allblacks » Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:18 pm

This is getting extremely uncomfortable isn't it.
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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Sat Apr 15, 2017 1:55 am

Reports today that North Korea might try and show a display of strength on the 105th anniversary of the birth of Grandad - even possibly testing another Nuke. And also rumours that US might even be prepared to send Tomahawks in to take out the Nuke test.

Hopefully both reports are incorrect and its just sensationalist reporting...

Oh yes, and a warning from Abe-Sama that North Korea might have 600 tonnes of nerve gas to dish out via its missiles. I almost forgot about that bit.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:36 am

So, it turns out the fleet wasn't sailing toward North Korea but toward the Indian Ocean. :doh: The fleet has changed course but won't arrive near Korea until next week.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Junken Master » Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:10 am

The only logical conclusion to that is - nobody knows where anything is headed - nobody knows what is being said to another person and nobody knows what they are doing in general.

Another example of the above is reports of North Korean's playing Volleyball on the Nuclear Testing Site.

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Re: The North Korea Question

Unread post by Shawn » Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:18 pm

FFS!
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a major conflict with North Korea is possible in the standoff over its nuclear and missile programs, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute.

"There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely," Trump told Reuters in an Oval Office interview ahead of his 100th day in office on Saturday.

Nonetheless, Trump said he wanted to peacefully resolve a crisis that has bedeviled multiple U.S. presidents, a path that he and his administration are emphasizing by preparing a variety of new economic sanctions while not taking the military option off the table.

"We'd love to solve things diplomatically but it's very difficult," he said.
And this gem:
He also said he wants South Korea to pay the cost of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile defense system, which he estimated at $1 billion, and intends to renegotiate or terminate a U.S. free trade pact with South Korea because of a deep trade deficit with Seoul.

Asked when he would announce his intention to renegotiate the pact, Trump said: “Very soon. I’m announcing it now.”
Everything is about money with this moron. As long as the numbers on his side of the ledger are bigger than the number on the other party's ledger, he thinks he's won. :bang:

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