Attention Shoppers: Biofuel for Sale

I know I've been harping on energy and cars lately, but this kind of "reporting" on TV [link to video and transcript in Japanese] has me scratching my head. This is a prime example of news dressed up as an advertisement or PR. The clip is about biofuels (bioethanol from sugar cane and other plants) becoming available to consumers in Yokohama and how it will help combat global warming. The biofuel goes on sale tomorrow at 50 gas stations with the goal of supplying biofuels nationwide by 2010.

The story doesn't mention what happens when you start growing food for fuel: Protests over rising food costs. The demand for corn to make ethanol in the United States caused the price of tortillas to rise in Mexico. On top of that, there's this problem:

GLOBAL grain yields must rise sharply over the next 50 years to avoidfood shortages as an increasingly rich population competes with biofuels for scarce resources, the head of the Scottish Agricultural College has said.

Despite growth in organic farming in some parts of Europe, Professor Bill McKelvey said that while such niche output had a role in the food supply, there was a need to intensify aspects of agriculture to avoid shortages in the future. He said growing affluence in countries like China and India as well as desertification due to climate change would increase strain on the world's ability to feed itself, but the most pressing threat came from the biofuel revolution.

When you start producing food for fuel instead of eating it, you have to make some hard choices. Do I want to eat or do I want to drive? Which is more important? The Nippon TV story only notes that the biofuel will be available at 50 gas stations. But what happens when Japanese motorists start demanding biofuels? What will they say when the increased demand for biofuels drives up the price of corn and soy and the price of food? Will consumers be willing to substitute food for fuel?

If we're going to adopt biofuels we need to make some significant changes in the way we live. PR pap like the stuff served up by NTV just reinforces the delusion that things will be OK as long technology progresses.

That's not to say that biofuels aren't a solution. They can be a solution but on a local scale. I don't see how this technology can be scaled to fuel the entire car and truck fleet of Japan without it affecting what we eat.

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>But what happens when

>But what happens when Japanese motorists start demanding biofuels? What will they say when the >increased demand for biofuels drives up the price of corn and soy and the price of food? Will consumers be >willing to substitute food for fuel?

The upside for J-motorists is that Japan already has an exceptional public transport system.

Problem is, what happens when the system, already strained (as anyone who's ridden the Yamanote, Odakyu, etc. at rush hour knows), has to take on those additional riders? This might be balanced out by the country's declining birthrate, but then again Japan will have to take in foreign workers to keep the economy going, thus maintaining the public transport ridership.

>I don't see how this technology can be scaled to fuel the entire >car and truck fleet of Japan without it affecting what we eat.

Another good point. Japan's vaunted distribution system will suffer, and regular consumers can expect to pay more since the trucks carrying bentos, magazines, and various sundries to local conbinis will cost more to run.

But Japan's plight seems almost rosy in comparison to the situation here in China. Minimal investment in infrastructure like public transport (Tianjin, with a pop. of 10.24 million, just this year set up a shink running to Beijing), a growing population, and worsening aridification (leading to Dust Bowl-like dust storms and less arable land) are but a number of factors poised to grind the Chinese economic miracle to a sickening halt.

That's what's great about getting involved with a foreigner. You can't take it personally. What's really terrific is that when we act in ways which might objectively...seem assholish, or incredibly annoying, they don't get upset at all. They just assume it's some national characteristic. -Barcelona

That's what's great about getting involved with a foreigner. You can't take it personally. What's really terrific is that when we act in ways which might objectively...seem assholish, or incredibly annoying, they don't get upset at all. They just assum

You're right, DiT. Japan is

You're right, DiT. Japan is in position to weather peak oil with its extensive train system. As you say, trucking will get hit hard if the price of gas significantly increases. I suppose the large companies may be able to survive but it will mean paying higher prices for everything.

I don't see peak oil being discussed much in the Japanese media right now. I think the issue needs more exposure so it doesn't catch everyone by surprise. Right now, the topic of the day is global warming and lowering carbon emissions. You can lower your emissions and give yourself a pat on the back for being green, but what do you do when the price of gas hits 200 yen a liter or even higher? A lot of people are going to have a hard time getting to work or do their jobs.

Shawn

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